A&M's unblemished non-conference run is truly an impressive feat
With Tuesday night’s 16-3 run-rule beat down of Rice in front of another large Blue Bell Park home crowd, the 2024 Texas Aggies closed out the non-conference portion of the 2024 schedule with an unblemished 25-0 record.
You can’t get any better than perfect, right?
While Power 5 baseball programs focus more on conference performances in April and May, the early-season slate and midweek contests, which account for 40-45 percent of the games played, are a significant component of each school’s NCAA Tournament resume.
If you don’t think non-conference games matter, just ask Texas head coach David Pierce, who is currently fighting to save his job in Austin.
Despite a 15-9 mark in the Big 12, the Longhorns’ 15-10 non-conference record with losses to university system little brother UTRGV, Texas State (twice), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Texas A&M are causing a lot of Burnt Orange heartburn on the Forty Acres.
Further, midweek upsets do happen on a regular basis.
The current No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers recently lost to Lipscomb.
No. 5 Arkansas dropped a game to James Madison, while No. 4 Kentucky lost a pair of games to Kennesaw State.
That’s baseball, especially in midweek action when coaches are throwing younger arms and giving back-up position players some spot starts to stay sharp in case of future injuries.
That said, it’s pretty special that the 2024 Aggies were able to avoid the unavoidable. It simply doesn’t happen very often and borders on a rare feat.
In fact, during the modern era of Texas A&M baseball (post-1980), a perfect non-conference run has happened just one other time. The 2015 squad under Rob Childress jumped out to a 24-0 record to start the year and eventually spent four weeks as the top team in the nation. That team navigated a perfect 23-0 non-conference mark, including wins over No. 13 Rice and No. 16 Houston. Those Aggies finished 50-14 but lost that heartbreaking 16-inning winner-take-all super-regional rubber match to Jim Schlossnagle’s Horned Frogs.
No other modern-era A&M team has accomplished that non-conference perfection until now.
Even the vaunted 1989 team lost to national power Oklahoma State for its only non-conference blemish, finishing the season 35-1 outside of SWC play. The No. 1 ranked 1993 College World Series team led by All-Americans Jeff Granger and Trey Moore on the hill finished the year with a 32-4 non-conference slate with losses to Southwest Texas, UT-Arlington, Maine and Sam Houston.
The 2011 CWS team finished with a pedestrian 19-11 mark, including a loss to Incarnate Word. The 1999 CWS team, featuring All-American Casey Fossum, finished the year with a 21-6 non-conference mark. The other CWS teams in the modern era concluded the non-league schedule at 20-6 in 2017 and 16-6 in 2022, when Schlossnagle took his first Aggie team to a third-place finish in Omaha.
To be honest, it’s challenging to compare non-league performances between years. First, the number of out-of-conference games varies greatly by year and conference affiliation at the time. In the 1990s, the SWC experimented with several scheduling formats after Arkansas left for the SEC. A&M teams played as many as 39 non-conference games in the 1990 season and as few as 20 games in 1992.
Regardless, this table does show just how special this 2024 team has been for the first 49 games of this season. It’s a historic run and arguably the greatest non-conference performance in school history.
Overall, here are the top non-conference performances by winning percentage since 1980:
1. 2024 – 25-0 (1.000)
2. 2015 – 23-0 (1.000)
3. 1989 – 35-1 (.972)
4. 2018 – 23-2 (.920)
5. 2007 – 31-3 (.912)
6. 1993 – 32-4 (.889)
7. 2016 – 25-4 (.862)
8. 1983 – 20-4 (.833)
9. 1990 – 32-7 (.821)
10. 1992 – 16-4 (.800)
It should also be noted that the 2024 Aggies made a clean sweep of the state of Texas, finishing 12-0 against the likes of Texas, Houston, Rice, Texas State, UTSA, Houston Christian, Lamar, Prairie, Texas Southern, and Sam Houston. This team has much bigger goals on the horizon for this season, but it’s nice to be the top dog in the Lone Star State.
Correlation to Postseason Success
While going 25-0 is a huge accomplishment and certainly supports A&M’s current No. 3 ranking this season, does it translate to postseason success?
The historical data is a mixed bag.
Of the five A&M teams in the modern era to reach Omaha, four fall below the program’s non-conference winning percentage average. As mentioned earlier, the 2011 team had one of the worst non-conference records (.630) in this era. The 2022 squad that finished third managed a paltry .727 winning percentage, followed by the 2017 team (.769) and the 1999 group (.778).
In fact, the 1993 squad is the only College World Series participant that made A&M’s top 10 non-conference winning percentages.
History suggests that non-conference winning percentage does not strongly correlate to postseason success (as defined by going to Omaha). This year’s undefeated non-conference slate is a great talking point and will help with seeding, but that’s not a strong indication of how this team will perform in the NCAA Tournament.
However, what appears to be a better indicator of postseason success is conference record.
Here’s a list of A&M teams with the highest conference winning percentage in regular-season play:
1. 1993 – 15-3 (.833)
2. 1989 – 17-4 (.810)
3. 1999 – 23-6 (.793)
4. 2011 – 19-8 (.701)
5. 1998 – 21-9 (.700)
6. 2024 – 16-8 (.667)*
6. 2016 – 20-10 (.667)
6. 2012 – 16-8 (.667)
9. 2015 – 18-10 (.642)
10. 2022 – 19-11 (.633)
* still six games to play
With one exception, all A&M teams that advanced to the College World Series did very well in conference play and placed in the top 10 of conference winning percentage in the modern era.
If a team does really well in league play against elite competition in the Big 12 and now the SEC, that’s a very good indicator of postseason success.
I know that’s self-evident, but it’s nice to say because this 2024 unit is having high-end success in a conference that currently houses four of the top five teams in both the national polls and the RPI rankings. With six games to play, the 2024 Ags are right there in the middle of this list.
Now, does that guarantee a long postseason run and a berth in the College World Series? No.
Again, this is baseball, and one bad outing by a starting pitcher will render all of these historical numbers and projections meaningless.
However, the metrics suggest that A&M is positioned to make a deep run to Omaha if everything goes as planned and there are no surprises (or injuries) along the way.
Yes, this team has the performance profile to win a national championship.
This may be one of Schlossnagle’s best chances to win his first national title.
It’s one thing to say this 2024 team is primed and positioned to make a run at a ring.
It’s another to actually do it.
Whatever happens, it will be a fun ride. All you can ask for, as a fan base, is to be in the mix in June with a legitimate chance to be the last team standing in Omaha.
The 2024 Aggies definitely have that chance.